There is quite a bit of underperformance in Indian market volatility compared to US market volatility since the COVID-19 crash as indicated by the jaws gap below. This should resolve soon with an upcoming spike in Indian market volatility and a significant fall in the Nifty Index.
About
Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.
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Time Series Analysis with GRETL
This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...
Showing posts with label vix. Show all posts
Showing posts with label vix. Show all posts
Friday 29 April 2022
Jaws GAP - India Vix vs US Vix
Labels:
india vix,
nifty,
spx,
vix,
volatility
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday 11 August 2021
Inter Market Divergences
With the stock markets hitting new highs some inter-market divergences have started to appear. Let's take a look at a few of them. The first chart looks at the SPX versus the Transports. You can see the marked divergence in the last few months with transports not confirming new highs in the SPX:
Taking a look at SPX vs Crude shows a smaller divergence that has developed recently:
Lastly, the SPX vs VIX chart reveals the VIX not making new lows for new highs in the SPX:
While these divergences may not matter with central banks flooding the markets with liquidity, once the liquidity shows signs of reversing, they may prove useful in determining what lies ahead.
Labels:
audjpy,
crude,
gold,
spx,
stock market,
transports,
vix
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday 27 March 2019
Indicators that Matter
There is a plethora of indicators to track while evaluating financial markets. Here are some important ones:
1) The Chinese Yuan:
The Chinese Yuan is often a proxy for the risk on trade. Periods of strength in the Chinese Yuan as seen in the last 3 months, have often been accompanied by up moves in risk assets such as stocks, commodities and emerging market currencies:
source:investing.com
2) The S and P 500 Price to Sales Ratio:
This is a key valuation measure and price to sales ratios greater than 2 have often symbolized over valuation while ratios lower than 1 have produced undervalued buy opportunities:
source: multpl.com
3) The Yield Curve:
The yield curve is a very reliable economic indicator and an inverted yield curve like we have now has often been followed by recessions or periods of rapidly slowing growth, while an upward sloping yield curve is often indicative of an expanding economy:
source: ETF Trends
4) CNN Money's Fear and Greed Indicator:
This is a sentiment indicator which is a combination of several sentiment indicators and indicates whether market participants are fearful or greedy:
source: CNN Money
5) The Skew Vix Ratio:
This indicator is another sentiment indicator and values below 5 tend to mark panic bottoms while values above 15 tend to mark complacent tops. This ratio has been making lower highs and lower tops of late suggesting that there may be one more panic bottom in the not too distant future:
source: Stock Charts
1) The Chinese Yuan:
The Chinese Yuan is often a proxy for the risk on trade. Periods of strength in the Chinese Yuan as seen in the last 3 months, have often been accompanied by up moves in risk assets such as stocks, commodities and emerging market currencies:
source:investing.com
2) The S and P 500 Price to Sales Ratio:
This is a key valuation measure and price to sales ratios greater than 2 have often symbolized over valuation while ratios lower than 1 have produced undervalued buy opportunities:
source: multpl.com
3) The Yield Curve:
The yield curve is a very reliable economic indicator and an inverted yield curve like we have now has often been followed by recessions or periods of rapidly slowing growth, while an upward sloping yield curve is often indicative of an expanding economy:
source: ETF Trends
4) CNN Money's Fear and Greed Indicator:
This is a sentiment indicator which is a combination of several sentiment indicators and indicates whether market participants are fearful or greedy:
source: CNN Money
5) The Skew Vix Ratio:
This indicator is another sentiment indicator and values below 5 tend to mark panic bottoms while values above 15 tend to mark complacent tops. This ratio has been making lower highs and lower tops of late suggesting that there may be one more panic bottom in the not too distant future:
source: Stock Charts
Labels:
fear and greed,
price to sales,
skew,
vix,
yield curve,
yuan
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Thursday 16 August 2018
Why a Massive Selloff in Risk Assets Could be Just a Few Days Away?
First market breadth is diverging with the New 52 week high low indicator not confirming the recent retest of highs in the S and P 500:
High beta segment of the market such as the Nasdaq is beginning to under perform the broader market much like in 2000:
The Skew Vix ratio as shown on stockcharts has spiked into double digits recently suggesting high tail risk, which is often a precursor to rising volatility and a risk off trade set up:
All this as we are in the middle of an emerging market currency crisis much like in 1998 unsupported by a tightening FED:
High beta segment of the market such as the Nasdaq is beginning to under perform the broader market much like in 2000:
The Skew Vix ratio as shown on stockcharts has spiked into double digits recently suggesting high tail risk, which is often a precursor to rising volatility and a risk off trade set up:
All this as we are in the middle of an emerging market currency crisis much like in 1998 unsupported by a tightening FED:
Emerging markets currencieshttps://t.co/iMzAOoBsZ4 pic.twitter.com/1f4DfSdl1e— Chart of the day (@macrovaluechart) August 16, 2018
Quantitative Tightening Update (June 2018) – 5 Fed Charts https://t.co/IvFzZqBq2c via @seeitmarket— Stéphane Collot (@stephanecollot) August 16, 2018
Labels:
currency crisis,
emerging market currency crisis,
fed,
market breadth,
nasdaq,
skew,
spx,
vix,
volatility
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Friday 23 March 2018
Stock Market Panic Just Beginning?
Markets have been taking a turn for the worse on fears of a global trade war. A look at the Fear and Greed Index computed by CNNMoney shows that investor sentiment is hitting record lows:
However the Vix is yet to take out the February highs and suggests that there is no major panic yet:
Also the NYSE McClellan Summation Index (courtesy stockcharts) has just begun breaking down again following the recent rally and has more room to fall suggesting more selling ahead:
Taken together we probably are headed for more selling and panic that should take us a lot lower to the major break out zone of the S and P 500 near 2400 first before any relief rallies occur.
However the Vix is yet to take out the February highs and suggests that there is no major panic yet:
Also the NYSE McClellan Summation Index (courtesy stockcharts) has just begun breaking down again following the recent rally and has more room to fall suggesting more selling ahead:
Taken together we probably are headed for more selling and panic that should take us a lot lower to the major break out zone of the S and P 500 near 2400 first before any relief rallies occur.
Labels:
fear and greed,
investor sentiment,
spx,
stock market,
stock market crash,
stocks,
vix
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Saturday 10 March 2018
Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 12
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2787, 3.54%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nifty
|
10227, -2.21%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bearish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3307, 1.62%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Gold
|
1324, 0.05%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
WTIC
Crude
|
62.04, 1.29%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Copper
|
3.14, 0.37%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1201, 0.42%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Euro
|
1.2307, -0.09%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dollar/Yen
|
106.77, 0.98%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dow
Transports
|
10740, 3.94%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
36.09, 0.25%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.89%, 1.30%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
164, 1023.97%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
US
Vix
|
14.64, -25.27%
|
Bullish
|
Bearish
|
Skew
|
128
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2714, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2742, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2571, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
10420, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
10606, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
10140, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
14.52, 3.22%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
64.93, -0.39%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
10
|
6
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
1
|
6
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
|
||
On
the Horizon
|
New Zealand –
GDP, China – Industrial production,
Euro Zone – German ZEW economic
sentiment, CPI, Switzerland – SNB rate
decision, U.S – CPI, Retail sales,
Oil inventories, Canada – Poloz
speech
|
||
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
|
||
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
Image from marketwatch.com
The S and
P 500 rallied and the Nifty sharply under performed last week. Indicators are mixed
for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced
in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above
their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Divergences in
high yield and surging bond yields are flashing warning signs. An interest rate
shock can’t be ruled out. Indian market volatility is still below US market
volatility so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The
critical levels to watch are 2800 (up)
and 2775 (down) on the S & P
and 10300 (up) and 10150 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of
the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can
check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
Labels:
baltic dry index,
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china,
copper,
euro,
gold,
investing,
nifty,
nyse,
oil,
rupee,
S and P 500,
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I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
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Market Review for 23rd August 2016 - *Nifty (8629)* we said ‘technically trend is still intact but there exists selling pressure near 8746 and support around 8600 zones’ the Nifty unfolded as...7 years ago
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ITC To Resume Cigarette Manufacturing - ITC manufactures a range of cigarette brands, including India Kings, Classic, Gold Flake, Navy Cut, Capstan, Bristol, Flake, Silk Cut, which are manufactur...7 years ago
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.