Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 09
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2605, -1.38%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nifty
|
10332, 2.15%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bullish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3131, -0.93%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Gold
|
1336, 0.66%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
62.06, -4.43%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Copper
|
3.06, 1.09%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
953, -11.76%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Euro
|
1.2293, -0.12%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dollar/Yen
|
106.91, 0.47%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dow
Transports
|
10146, -2.41%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
35.74, 0.11%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.78%, 1.24%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
31, 100.91%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
US
Vix
|
21.49, 7.61%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Skew
|
122
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2679, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2710, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2594, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
10222, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
10464, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
10195, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
14.75, -6.41%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
64.89, -0.21%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
4
|
4
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
9
|
9
|
|
Outlook
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 fell and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bearish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
|
|
|
On
the Horizon
|
Euro Zone –
ECB monetary policy minutes, U.S –
PPI, CPI, Oil inventories, FOMC minutes
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
|
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
|
|
|
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
|
|
The S and
P 500 fell and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bearish for the
upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully.
The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long
term averages from which corrections usually result. The yen and other safe
haven asset classes are flashing warning signs. Indian market volatility is still
well below US market volatility as the nifty is close to resistance while the
US market is at major support so there is complacency and some catch up left on
the down side in India. The critical levels to watch are 2615 (up) and 2590 (down) on the S & P and 10400 (up) and
10250 (down) on the Nifty. A
significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above
markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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